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Hogs: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, May 03, 2016 13:36:26)

Lean hog futures are called slightly higher on followthrough buying. Hog futures are expected to benefit from followthrough after yesterday's gains, as bulls clearly have near-term momentum on their side. Futures should also see a boost from yesterday's $1.59 gain for the pork cutout value, though movement was light at 305.11 loads. The cash hog market is called steady to $1 higher on strong packer demand due to profitable margins. But May lean hog futures hold around an $8 premium to the cash index, making it vulnerable to profit-taking.


Soybeans: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, May 03, 2016 13:33:59)

Soybean futures are called 4 to 6 cents higher amid dollar weakness. Soybean futures ended the overnight session mostly around 5 cents higher on fund buying and a weaker tone in the U.S. dollar index. May soybeans tested the key $10.50 level in overnight trade. The contract is overbought according to the nine-day Relative Strength Index. Cordonnier has trimmed his Argentine soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 56 MMT and said the estimate could move lower as soybeans are sprouting and rotting in pods. Meanwhile, Brazil exported nearly 10.086 MMT of soybeans in April, easily topping last year's record. Given this strong pace, the recent increase in old-crop U.S. soybean sales is even more impressive.


Corn: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, May 03, 2016 13:33:20)

Corn futures are called mixed and are expected to favor a weaker tone. Corn futures saw a lackluster overnight session, but favored a weaker tone on the close amid light profit-taking. Strong gains in soybean futures and a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index could encourage stronger fund buying during daytime trade. Yesterday's crop progress data showed corn planting was 45% complete as of Sunday, 15 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Favorable weather this week lowers the risk of acreage shifts, which limited buying in corn futures overnight. South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian corn crop peg by another 1 MMT to 78 MMT due to disappointing rains last week for the safrinha crop.


Wheat: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, May 03, 2016 13:34:42)

Wheat is called mixed, but the market is expected to favor a firmer tone. Wheat futures saw two-sided trade overnight, but SRW wheat ended the session mostly around a penny higher. HRW and HRS wheat ended slightly lower. A sharply weaker tone in the U.S. dollar index this morning is supportive for commodity markets, as it raises some optimism the U.S. wheat export pace might improve. Meanwhile, yesterday's crop condition ratings from USDA reflected more improvement in the crop than traders expected. Our weighted Crop Condition Index reflected improvement in the HRW crop and around a half-point downtick for the SRW rating from last week.


Cotton: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, May 03, 2016 13:22:54)

Recent news hasn’t seemed particularly supportive of the cotton outlook. For example, the weekly Crop Progress report released Monday afternoon indicated plantings had climbed 6% to 16% complete; that lagged the long-term average but was 1% ahead of last year. The ICAC also increased its forecast carry-out for the current crop year in an overnight news release. Bulls were probably encouraged by continued U.S. dollar slippage, but the rebound from early lows, as well as big losses in stock index futures apparently undercut ICE futures. July cotton fell 0.55 cents to 63.82 cents/pound early Tuesday morning, while the December contract dropped 0.53 to 62.89.


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