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Hogs: Afternoon Comments (Friday, May 27, 2016 19:42:43)

Lean hog futures closed mixed, with the summer contracts down 2 1/2 to 20 cents and deferred months up to 12 1/2 cents higher. June futures rose 67 1/2 cents for the week. Pork movement coming out of the Memorial Day weekend will guide both cash and futures prices next week. Packer margins are still in the black but significantly tighter than earlier in the month. Packers were able to keep them in positive territory the last full week of May by lowering bids on reduced kill needs. Supplies will likely remain somewhat tight, seasonally, but without positive movement, packers will attempt to press prices lower to maintain margins. Hog prices normally move higher in June. Hog futures have already priced in much of that rise and remain at a premium to the cash market. A surge in movement from retail featuring is needed to lift prices significantly higher.


Soybeans: Afternoon Comments (Friday, May 27, 2016 19:46:02)

Soybean futures surged in late-morning trading and finished 4 3/4 to 7 cents higher. The market posted solid gains for the week. Soybean futures are poised for strength when trade reopens on Tuesday. Prices continue to gain support from the slow movement of soybeans and soybean meal out of South America. But a continuation of the current rain pattern could pressure new-crop prices if it becomes more likely farmers will switch some intended corn acres to soybeans. Traders will focus on the June 10 Supply & Demand Report from USDA for any change in projected new-crop carryover. Once that report is in the rearview mirror, focus will shift to USDA's Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports due June 30. If planting is delayed due to rains in early June, traders may believe USDA's planted soybean acreage figure in the June 30 report may be understated.


Corn: Afternoon Comments (Friday, May 27, 2016 19:45:14)

Corn futures saw two-sided trade to wrap up the week and ended near session highs with gains of 3 1/2 to 4 3/4 cents. The market climbed to its highest level since early October this week. Corn futures extended their rally as the arrival of a wet weather pattern has drawn down planted acreage projections. Wet weather is expected to linger well into next week for areas of the eastern Corn Belt where delays have been most severe. This will likely remain a source of underlying support for the market. USDA will update its planted acreage estimate on June 30. But even if a few million acres shift to soybeans, acreage and crop prospects are still likely to be hefty. With some weather watchers saying El Nino has ended and increasing the odds for a La Nina event as soon as this summer, the weather will also be in focus. However, a major drought event for the Corn Belt is unlikely.




Wheat: Afternoon Comments (Friday, May 27, 2016 19:46:44)

SRW wheat futures ended the day narrowly mixed, while HRW and HRS futures ended the day under pressure. Wheat still posted weekly gains. July SRW wheat futures ended the week with a gain of 13 cents, July HRW futures posted a weekly gain of 11 cents and July HRS futures posted a modest gain of just 1/2 cent as today's losses erased much of yesterday's sharp gains. This is typically not the time of the year for winter wheat futures to rally, as they are on the verge of facing hedge-related pressure as harvest begins. But this year, it appears harvest could be delayed due to heavy rains in the extended outlook. If realized, the quality of the crop could be jeopardized, which could be temporarily supportive for futures. For a sustained rally, wheat must rely on corn and soybean markets. If a summer weather threat trims yield prospects in the Midwest, wheat futures should find spillover support. But even then, support should be short-lived given lackluster demand for U.S. wheat and plentiful global wheat supplies.




Cotton: Afternoon Comments (Friday, May 27, 2016 19:47:39)

Cotton futures settled modestly lower today, but posted strong gains for the week. July cotton futures ended 261 points higher for the week, while December cotton futures firmed 252 points. There has been enough export demand and there are enough planting concerns, especially in Texas, to encourage short-covering in cotton futures. But supportive news must keep coming to keep cotton futures pointed higher coming out of the extended holiday weekend. It's difficult to get traders too concerned about planting delays, even when they are in the top production state of Texas. USDA's June 30 Acreage Report will be watched closely to see if USDA indicates all of the intended cotton acres are expected to get planted. Spring rains are slowing planting efforts, but they will provide needed moisture later in the growing season. That extra moisture may be needed as some forecasts call for a hot, dry summer across the South. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also expects near-normal hurricane activity, which could push some needed moisture up out of the Gulf of Mexico this summer (see "Evening Report" for more).



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