|Hogs: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, June 28, 2016 13:39:19)
Lean hog futures are called mixed amid position squaring. Lean hog futures had a bearish reaction to the Hogs & Pigs Report, although the market came off session lows to finish midrange yesterday. As a result, a mixed start is expected. The report raises expectations for slaughter heading into fall, reinforcing beliefs a near-term high has been posted. Buying will be limited to short-covering given ongoing concerns about pork demand. Yesterday pork values slipped 78 cents to tighten packers' margins. Movement was lackluster at 324.88 loads. The cash market is expected to be mostly steady today.
|Soybeans: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, June 28, 2016 13:37:08)
Soybean futures are called 25 to 30 cents higher on followthrough buying. Following yesterday's impressive recovery, soybean futures benefited from followthrough buying overnight to signal a near-term low has likely been posted. Futures ended the overnight session mostly around 27 to 28 cents higher, with November beans triggering buy stops as they returned above the 23.6% retracement level of the rally from the March low. This now acts as support near $11.11. Futures were also supported by yesterday's slight drop in crop condition ratings. Our weighted CCI shows the soybean crop fell 2.35 points to 370.27 points. The drop in ratings renews concerns about a drier near-term forecast. Traders are also beginning to more aggressively even positions ahead of Thursday's reports. Traders expect USDA to peg June 1 soybean stocks at 829 million bu., the highest since 2007. Additionally, they expect soybeans to have picked up some corn acres, with planted acreage expected at 83.834 million, up around 1.6 million from March intentions.
|Corn: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, June 28, 2016 13:35:57)
Corn futures are called 6 to 10 cents higher on spillover from soybeans. Futures started the overnight session under pressure but benefited from spillover from sharp strength in soybeans and ended the overnight session mostly around 8 to 10 cents higher. A weaker tone in the U.S. dollar index added to support. Traders were disappointed yesterday's USDA data revealed the percentage of the crop rated "good" to "excellent" was unchanged from last week at 75%, although our weighted Crop Condition Index (CCI) shows the crop dipped 1.72 points from last week to 384.36 points (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect). Traders are also beginning to even positions ahead of Thursday's key reports in which they expect June 1 corn stocks of 4.528 billion bu. to be up from year-ago, but for planted acreage to be down from March intentions at around 92.896 million acres.
|Wheat: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, June 28, 2016 13:37:47)
Wheat is called 5 to 8 cents higher on dollar weakness. Wheat futures benefited from short-covering overnight on ideas losses were overdone, as well as spillover from soybeans and help from a weaker tone in the U.S. dollar index. HRS futures were also supported by yesterday's bigger-than-expected drop in crop condition ratings. Our weighted spring wheat CCI dropped 6.73 points over the past week to 375.86 points. Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest advanced a little more aggressively than traders expected, with 45% cut as of Sunday. Traders are also evening positions ahead of Thursday's USDA reports in which they expect June 1 wheat stocks to come in at 982 million bu., up 230 million from year-ago. Traders expect USDA to raise winter wheat acres compared to March intentions, and for spring wheat to come in 366 million acres higher than March intentions. All wheat acreage is expected at 49.869 million, up 270 million from March.
|Cotton: Afternoon Comments (Tuesday, June 28, 2016 13:34:18)
Although cotton futures began the week very well Sunday night, Monday’s big follow-through stock losses and U.S. dollar strength later dragged price back toward their daily lows. Conversely, the sizeable overnight rebound in equities and concurrent dollar weakness apparently sparked a vigorous rebound this morning. The advance was made more impressive by the fact that Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report indicated another 2% increase in the sum of ‘good’ and ‘excellent’ condition ratings. One has to suspect many in the industry are seeing cotton demand prove stronger than is generally thought, especially with global supplies remaining burdensome. July cotton surged 0.88 cents to 64.36 cents/pound early Tuesday morning, while the December contract jumped 1.07 to 65.45.