|Hogs: Afternoon Comments (Monday, November 30, 2015 13:51:03)
Lean hog futures stabilized in last Friday’s light post-Thanksgiving session, with traders seeming content to maintain much of Wednesday’s bullish reaction to the monthly USDA Cold Storage report. The fact that frozen inventories fell so sharply despite extremely large pork production suggests underlying demand remains robust. However, the fact that the CME index is only edging higher from its recent low, as well as the premiums now built into CME futures suggest bulls may have trouble sustaining the upward momentum this week. December hog futures ended last week at 58.72 cents/pound, down 0.07 from Wednesday’s close and April hogs fell 0.75 cents to 61.75 cents/pound.
|Soybeans: Afternoon Comments (Monday, November 30, 2015 13:21:34)
Soybean futures were neutral Monday morning after surging 11 cents before Thanksgiving and falling 1.25 cents in an abbreviated trading day Friday. Argentina’s newly elected government plans to cut the 35% soybean export tax by 5% on Dec 10, their first day in office. Soy grower Los Grobo sees Argentine grain output growing by 50% in the next three years. Weekly soybean export sales were reported last Friday at 1.174 million tonnes, compared to the estimate of 1.0 to 1.5 million. USDA NASS will release their October crush report at 2pm CST Tuesday. Due to rains caused by El-Nino, the number of soybean rust fungus cases in Brazil has nearly double from a year ago, mostly in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana. January soybeans were 0.75 cents higher to $8.7375 per bushel early Monday morning, while Jan soyoil climbed .22 to 29.30 cents per pound and January meal fell $1.5 to $282.30.
|Corn: Afternoon Comments (Monday, November 30, 2015 13:50:39)
Corn futures were neutral-higher to start the week after weekly corn export sales exceeded expectations last Friday at 2.036 million tonnes, compared to the expected .9 to 1.3 million tonnes. Ethanol stocks for the week ending Nov 20 were 19.6 million barrels, 2% higher than the previous week and 15% higher than a year ago. Ethanol production increased to 1,008 million barrels per day, higher than the 975 million the previous week and 982 a year ago. The Commitment of Traders report will be released today in lieu of last Friday. Argentina’s ag minister Buryaile, designated by president-elect Mauricio Macri, stated the new administration will abolish the 20% corn export tax on Dec 10, 2015, the first day they take office. The dollar index is higher at 100.23, 17 basis points from a 13-year high. March corn futures were even at $3.6725 early Monday morning, while March lost 0.25 cents to $3.67.
|Wheat: Afternoon Comments (Monday, November 30, 2015 13:26:01)
Wheat futures were mixed early Monday as prices remain near three-month lows on ample supply/poor exports with the Chicago nearby contract down for the fourth session, pressured by a strong dollar that threatens exports. Wheat export sales for the week ending Nov 19 were 303,700 tonnes, lower than the expected 400,000-600,000 tonnes. The Canadian crop production report will be released Friday at 7:30 a.m. CST. Argentina’s ag minister Buryaile, designated by president elect Mauricio Macri, stated the new administration will abolish the estimated 23% wheat export tax on Dec 10, 2015, the first day they take office. March CBOT wheat futures lost 1.25 cents to $4.7775 /bushel early Monday, while Mar KC wheat lifted 2.75 cents to $4.6925, and March MWE climbed 3.0 cents to $5.095.
|Cotton: Afternoon Comments (Monday, November 30, 2015 13:24:36)
ICE cotton futures were lower Monday, pressured by a surging dollar. Last Wednesday, the nearby contract broke above three major moving averages to close .17 cent above the 40-day. Texas, the largest cotton producing state in the U.S., was at 60% harvest completion compared to 56% last week and the 75% five-year average. The recent cotton crop progress report, for the week ending Nov 22, also showed the U.S. total cotton harvest at 70% completed, compared to 64% last week and the 82% five-year average. Mar cotton lost 0.43 cents to 63.50 cents/pound early Monday, while May cotton slipped 0.46 cents to 64.10.