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Hogs: Afternoon Comments (Friday, September 23, 2016 20:06:30)

Lean hog futures closed 62 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents lower with the exception of the December contract, which closed 30 cents higher. October futures finished the week about $1.50 lower. Hog prices will open the week under pressure as the wholesale market continues to disappoint while available supplies remain ample. Struggles in the cash cattle market will add to the pressure on hog futures, though nearby contracts are trading at a hefty discount to the cash market. Prices will remain under pressure as supplies rise seasonally. Retail demand has held up well to this point, but may struggle to keep up with building supplies this fall. Traders will look ahead to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report scheduled for next Friday for guidance on current supplies and producer expansion plans.




Soybeans: Afternoon Comments (Friday, September 23, 2016 20:08:29)

Price action: Soybean prices fell 17 1/4 to 21 1/2 cents through the August 2017 contract. The November contract closed about 13 cents lower for the week. Widening interior basis prompted by the start up of harvest will likely continue to weigh on futures next week. Demand is large, but the availability of new-crop supplies will likely dominate market attitudes next week. Traders are also keeping an eye on the weather, but for the timebeing, aren't overly concerned about harvest delays in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The market will focus on supplies over the next month as harvest moves into full swing. The Quarterly Stocks of Grains Report on Friday sets carryin stocks for 2016-17. Traders will also get a better idea on crop prospects as USDA releases the Crop Production Report on Oct. 12.


Corn: Afternoon Comments (Friday, September 23, 2016 20:07:46)

Corn futures settled fractionally to just over a penny lower today. For the week, December corn futures dropped 1/2 cent. Increased harvest activity will limit buyer interest in the corn market next week and could weigh on futures, especially if soybeans face more heavy price pressure. Aside from harvest results, price direction will come from Friday's Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. That report has a history of producing big market moves. Corn is likely to face seasonal pressure over much of the next month. Unless harvest results are stronger than expected, however, corn futures may not take out the Aug. 31 lows. If USDA lowers its crop estimate in the Oct. 12 Crop Production Report, it could start a price recovery. But if USDA's crop estimate comes in bigger than the September peg, it could push back the posting of a seasonal low.


Wheat: Afternoon Comments (Friday, September 23, 2016 20:09:00)

SRW wheat futures ended steady to fractionally weaker today, while HRW contracts were fractionally firmer and spring wheat was fractionally to 2 1/2 cents higher. For the week, December SRW futures closed about a penny higher. Wheat futures will likely remain in their tight trading range. The HRS harvest is all but down, easing harvest pressure. But export sales will likely remain light. Traders will turn their attention to the Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Grains Stocks Reports due next Friday. Wheat prices will follow the ebb and flow of corn and soybean prices. Those markets will likely ebb in the near term as corn and soybean harvest swings into full gear. Next Friday's USDA reports will provide additional supply data, but the trade already knows supplies are high.






Cotton: Afternoon Comments (Friday, September 23, 2016 20:09:49)

CCotton futures faced spillover pressure from soybean futures and closed sharply lower for the day. For the week, however, futures still posted gains. December cotton posted a gain of 279 points. Key to start next week will be if futures face followthrough from late-week losses or if traders return to defend their newly created long positions. Technically, futures remain in the uptrend from the late August low. But once harvest moves into full gear, there is risk of increased price pressure. China is expected to return to the global market to meet its needs after its auction of state-reserve sales ends next Friday. Traders have been impressed by the volume of reserve sales, saying it signals China's appetite for cotton is strong. The market will also get a better idea of the U.S. crop as yield and quality reports begin to surface. Global factors will likely dominate price action once U.S. harvest is complete. Futures were supported earlier in the week by crop concerns in India and China. A significant reduction in global supplies in the year ahead provides a more positive atmosphere for rallies.



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