by Duane Lowry
Monday, October 22, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:30 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 3 1/4 higher,    Wheat= 7 3/4 higher,    Soybeans= 16 1/2 higher.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.45-50,   Resistance= $7.66-69
*No trust in overnight strength. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Jan Soybeans: Support= $15.25,    Resistance= $15.50-60
*No trust in overnight strength. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Dec Wheat: Support= $8.55,   Resistance= $8.80-85
*No trust in overnight strength. Â Â Â
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:28 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.75, Gold was up $4.00, Dow Index was up 50 and the US $ was down 12.
*Short-term strength in crude, gold and stocks should be seen as corrective in nature and having difficulty lasting for more than 2-3 days. Overall conditions warn these markets can trend lower during the next several weeks. Â Â Â Â
Weather offers limited precip to the drier area of concern in the northwestern US hrw wheat region. Western Australia has some moisture in its forecast, but not enough and questionable confidence in the event. Northern Brazil desires more precip and forecasts there offer some encouragement. Yet, I don't think any of these weather storylines can be confidently expected to have impact on the day's price action. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Wheat has limited new news. Technical selling interest should build in front of Friday's highs. Short-term conditions are not conducive to building a trending higher pattern at this time. Recent lows remain vulnerable to violation. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Corn has little for new news and trader frustration with this market has reached the point where interest is diminishing, despite the recent return to the upper end of the past few weeks' trading range. Short-term technical conditions express vulnerability to weakness evolving this week. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Soybeans rejected early night session weakness, pushing more than 30 cents off the early low to violate Friday's high. Short-term technical conditions are not conducive to building a trending higher pattern. Fundamental merit seems lacking. Despite building trader enthusiasm towards this market in anticipation of the South American growing season, recent lows remain vulnerable to a probe. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
In summary, the overnight trade's ability to reject early weakness is impressive. However, technical conditions are more suited to choppy trade than developing a new uptrend. It has been difficult to connect any fundamental theme to a consistent day-to-day price action trend and this may continue. I have no trust in the overnight strength and fear recent lows will be fully changed or probed in all these markets. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CORN:
Barge Values: October= +64 Z
CZ: Support= 7.15-25,   Resistance= 7.75
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Values at the upper end of short-term resistance levels. Overnight strength has questionable sustainability. Conditions don't seem conducive to trending higher action, but choppy trade. A test of the lower end of this month's trading range remains very possible. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
SOYBEANS:
Barge Values: October= +74 X
SF: Support= 15.15, Resistance= 15.55-65
SMZ: Support= 440-50, Resistance= 465-70
BOZ: Support= 50.50, Resistance= 53.00
**PROFILE: Jan Soybeans> Resistance should build at overnight levels. Longer-term support should build around/just below last week's lows. Short-term conditions don't seem likely to support a trending higher trade at this time. IN SUMMARY, I fully anticipate another test/probe of recent lows. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
WHEAT:
Barge SRW Values: October= +55 Z
WZ: Support= 8.55, Resistance= 8.90
**PROFILE: Chicago December Wheat> Still prone to another downswing below last week's lows. New-crop futures offer reasonable and warranted producer hedging opportunities at current levels.        Â
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES:. Â Â
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