by Duane Lowry
Friday, October 19, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:31 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 7 higher,    Wheat= 15 higher,    Soybeans= 9 higher.
*Where are we for the WEEK? Dec Wheat= up 11 3/4 cents; Dec Corn= up 8 cents; Nov Soybeans= up 23 cents; Dec Soymeal= down $1.90; Dec Soyoil= up 163 points; Crude Oil= up $0.24; US $ Index= up 43; Gold= down $10.20; Dow Index= down 31.
*Informa is expected to update 2013 acreage and production projections this morning.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.45-50,   Resistance= $7.66-69
*No trust in overnight strength. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Nov Soybeans: Support= $15.15,    Resistance= $15.50-60
*No trust in overnight strength. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Dec Wheat: Support= $8.55,   Resistance= $8.80-85
*No trust in overnight strength. Â Â Â
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:31 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.14, Gold was down $9.40, Dow Index was down 24 and the US $ was up 8.
*Gold may be ready for its next down leg. Crude and stocks remain vulnerable to expanding selling pressures and aggressive trending lower action during the next several weeks. Â Â Â Â
Weather is similar to yesterday, offering little market influence. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Wheat pushed higher overnight. Technical conditions are not conducive to creating a trending higher pattern at this time. New fundamental storylines are lacking. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Corn strength overnight has returned values to the upper-end of this month's trading range. New news is limited. Short-term technical conditions don't seem conducive to trending action, but vulnerable to more choppy trade and easily a return to this week's lows. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Soybeans traded on both sides overnight in wide-ranging fashion. New news is limited. Traders are anxious to embrace the strength of the past few sessions as confirmation a seasonal low has been established. I see it as confirmation that we have achieved a price zone worthy of a major bottom, but I don't believe we have yet established the ultimate low and/or additional testing of this week's low is likely. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
In summary, overnight strength is building bullish enthusiasm. New news is limited. Technical conditions warn of more time ahead in choppy trade and very real potential for recent lows to be again challenged and probably violated in the case of soybeans. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CORN:
Barge Values: October= +63 Z
CZ: Support= 7.15-25,   Resistance= 7.75
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Seasonal lows have likely already been established. Conditions don't seem conducive to trending higher action, but choppy trade. A test of the lower end of this month's trading range remains very possible. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
SOYBEANS:
Barge Values: October= +74 X
SX: Support= 15.15, Resistance= 15.50-60
SMZ: Support= 440-50, Resistance= 465-70
BOZ: Support= 50.50, Resistance= 53.00
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> Downside price targets have been achieved. Longer-term support should build around this week's lows. Short-term conditions don't seem likely to support a trending higher trade at this time. IN SUMMARY, we are in the right time and price zone to establish a major longer-term bottom. I fully anticipate another test/probe of recent lows. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
WHEAT:
Barge SRW Values: October= +57 Z
WZ: Support= 8.55, Resistance= 8.90
**PROFILE: Chicago December Wheat> Still prone to another downswing below this week's lows.        Â
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES: The CME is involved in discussions to reduce current grain trading hours by returning to a 1:15 close. Â Â
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.