by Duane Lowry
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 5:55 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= unchanged, Wheat= 3 3/4 higher, Soybeans= 4 1/4 lower.
*USDA will issue their monthly S&D and production estimates TOMORROW morning. Here are the trade estimates:
Corn= 645 mil avg, range= 454-815, Sep USDA= 733.
Soybeans= 134 mil avg, range= 95-203, Sep USDA= 115.
Wheat= 627 mil avg, range= 550-714, Sep USDA of 698 bil.
US Corn= 10.598 bil avg, range= 9.954-11.194 bil, Sep USDA= 10.727, 2011= 12.358.
Yield= 122.7 avg, range= 119.9-127.0, Sep USDA= 122.8, 2011= 147.2.
US Soybeans= 2.770 bil avg, range= 2.600-2.903 bil, Sep USDA= 2.634, 2011= 3.056.
Yield= 37.0 avg, range= 35.5-38.5, Sep USDA= 35.3, 2011= 41.5.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.30-35, Resistance= $7.45-50
*Lethargic action with a weak bias.
Nov Soybeans: Support= $15.10-20, Resistance= $15.50-55
*Vulnerable to weakness.
Dec Wheat: Support= $8.30-35, Resistance= $8.70-75
*Vulnerable to probing recent lows during the next several days.
Outside Market Influences:
At 5:55 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was down $0.32, Gold was down $0.70, Dow Index was down 17 and the US $ was up 6.
*The US Dollar is positioning for a notable upside push in the weeks/months ahead.
Weather offers expanding moisture for the central Midwest and Delta beginning late this week and through the balance of the two-week forecast. Weather is similar to yesterday and offers little for bullish fodder.
Wheat spent the night session in positive territory. News is limited. All focus is on row-crop reactions from tomorrow's USDA reports. Technical conditions warn of a push below recent lows.
Corn experienced a non-event night session, but amid overall weak performances, such pre-report action doesn't speak well of this market. Technical conditions warn of a deeper test and possible probe of the September lows. Traders do not expect bearish data from USDA.
Soybeans traded on the defensive all night. Charts appear vulnerable. Traders fear bearish USDA soybean data in tomorrow's reports.
In summary, we are in pre-report mode amid limited news, weak price action and technical conditions that warn of greater vulnerability than most hope.
Barge Values: October= +60 Z
CZ: Support= 7.35, Resistance= 7.50-55
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Price action is weak. Conditions suggest vulnerability to a deeper test of the September low, possibly a probe of that level.
Barge Values: October= +78 X
SX: Support= 14.90, Resistance= 15.60
SMZ: Support= 450-55, Resistance= 475-80
BOZ: Support= 49.50-50.00, Resistance= 53.00
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> Vulnerable to a probe of recent lows. IN SUMMARY, short-term indicators suggest we may have more time to finalize season bottoms and the next several days may lead to a test/probe of recent lows. However, such weakness should be seen as providing longer-term buying opportunities.
Barge SRW Values: October= +58 Z
WZ: Support= 8.10-25, Resistance= 9.00-9.10
**PROFILE: Chicago December Wheat> Recent lows remain vulnerable to a probe. Such an event should not be embraced as a trend-establishing move.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES: Iraq says they can double oil production by 2015.
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.