by Duane Lowry
Thursday, September 20, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:26 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 4 3/4 lower, Wheat= 3 lower, Soybeans= 12 3/4 lower.
*Export Sales data will be released at 7:30 this morning. Here are the trade estimates: Wheat= 300-400 tmt, Corn= 300-400 tmt, Soybeans= 600-800 tmt, Soymeal= 125-200 tmt, Soyoil= 5-15 tmt.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.40-45, Resistance= $7.65-75
*Overnight weakness could be rejected and we may spend another day or two in recovery mode.
Nov Soybeans: Support= $16.50-55, Resistance= $16.80-17.00
*Further probing towards resistance is possible, suggesting recovery from this morning's weakness.
Dec Wheat: Support= $8.70, Resistance= $8.90-9.00
*Selling interest to build on short-term recovery attempts.
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:26 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was down $0.68, Gold was down $9.20, Dow Index was down 28 and the US $ was up 49.
*Expected trend changes beginning to show.
Weather provides mostly favorable Midwest harvest conditions during the next two weeks.
Wheat drifted lower while corn and soybeans gyrated overnight. News is limited. Short-term technical conditions seem capable of rejecting the weaker overnight trade. Technical selling interest will build on probes towards $9.00. Short-term corrective rally efforts will give way to additional price unraveling during the next few weeks.
Corn experienced choppy overnight trade, but early firming tone could not be maintained. Short-term technical indicators suggest we may have more time to spend trying to recover to values above yesterday's highs. Selling interest builds about 10-15 cents above yesterday's close. News is limited. Yield reports are wide-ranging, but there are definitely some producers talking about better than expected results. Overall conditions warn of further price declines amid liquidation pressures. Short-term recovery efforts extending above yesterday's highs need to be searched for selling opportunities.
Soybeans experienced very volatile overnight trading. Early weakness was quickly rejected, pushing 16 cents into positive territory during the first 2 hours of trade. Prices then quickly fell 25 cents, then quickly rallied 18 cents, before eroding into the early morning hours. It is difficult to explain any night action such as this. The initial upside probe did reach into the more meaningful resistance zone, but short-term technical conditions suggest we may be able to further probe that resistance and may have a bit more time to spend in recovery mode. Expect selling interest to intensify if November challenges the $17.00 area, approximately 15 cents above the overnight high. News is limited. Midwest yield reports sure seem to have a better than expected theme developing.
In summary, choppy and strange overnight action could continue during the day session. Weak early morning tone could easily be rejected as the day unfolds. Grain news is limited. Global economic data remains troubling. Producer yield reports have far more better-than-expected comments than most expected. Those loudly expecting further reductions in national yields have gone silent. Yet, there is no confidence in what final national yields will be, but there is much more recognition that it is possible yield pessimism became to exaggerated. Short-term corrective strength that extends above yesterday's highs need to be searched for selling opportunities. Overall conditions warn of more downside risk during the next few weeks.
Barge Values: September= +58 Z
CZ: Support= 7.35-40, Resistance= 7.65-75
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Short-term conditions suggest we may attempt a bit more recovery activity. Selling interest will still be building above the market, with resistance on tests/probes of $7.70. Overall conditions warn of more downside risk.
Barge Values: September= +68 X
SX: Support= 16.30-40, Resistance= 16.80-17.00
SMZ: Support= 480, Resistance= 510-15
BOZ: Support= 54.00, Resistance= 56.50
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> Key resistance was tested in the early overnight strength. We may see more probes into that area during the next couple of days. Short-term recovery efforts will find increasing selling interest on probes above $16.80. IN SUMMARY, selling interest will build on recovery attempts. Overall conditions warn of more downside risk during the next few weeks.
Barge SRW Values: September= +47 Z
WZ: Support= 8.50, Resistance= 9.00
**PROFILE: Chicago December Wheat> Selling interest to surface on any test of $9.00. Further price unraveling is likely during the next several weeks.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES: USDA says that beginning with the January reports, the report release time will be changed to 11:00 cst.
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.