by Duane Lowry
Monday, September 10, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:11 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 4 higher, Wheat= 2 3/4 higher, Soybeans= 2 1/2 higher.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.98, Resistance= $8.12
Nov Soybeans: Support= $17.30, Resistance= $17.55-65
Dec Wheat: Support= $9.00, Resistance= $9.25
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:08 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was down $0.05, Gold was down $6.40, Dow Index was down 17 and the US $ was up 7.
*We are poised for trend changes.
Weather will provide limited harvest disruptions during the next two weeks.
Wheat traded both sides overnight. New news is limited. Technical conditions offer mixed signals. Focus is on Wednesday's USDA data.
Corn rejected early overnight weakness. US harvest will begin to rapidly expand this week. New news is limited. Trader sentiment remains universally bullish. Short-term technical conditions offer mixed signals.
Soybeans traded 20 cents lower early last night, only to be completely rejected by morning. New news is limited. Short-term technical conditions offer mixed signals. Traders are anxious to see more combine yield reports.
In summary, we have little for new news and technical conditions offer mixed signals. Trader focus is on Wednesday's USDA reports.
Barge Values: September= +15 Z
CZ: Support= 7.45-55, Resistance= 8.15-25
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Mixed short-term signals.
Barge Values: September= +58 X
SX: Support= 16.65, Resistance= 17.55-70
SMZ: Support= 500, Resistance= 535-40
BOZ: Support= 54.00, Resistance= 58.00
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> IN SUMMARY, mixed short-term signals exist.
Barge SRW Values: September= +44 Z
WZ: Support= 8.75, Resistance= 9.30
**PROFILE: Chicago December Wheat>.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES: Iran's currency has hit a 7-year low against the US Dollar in street trading, a clear sign of the impact of Western sanctions. The current street value is half the official exchange rate. China released industrial production figures that showed China's economy is continuing to slow, as well as consumer price index figures that showed inflation is building. The combination of data will make it less likely that China will stimulate their economy aggressively, but some type of further stimulus remains probable. China's President Hu Jintao warned Saturday that China's economy faces "notable downward pressure" and discussed the need to upgrade infrastructure to promote growth and recovery. Despite the prime minister saying a package of spending cuts is essential to Greece's financial credibility, leaders of the three parties in Greece's coalition government failed to reach an agreement, threatening the future of its bailout funding. Leaders are scheduled to meet with creditor representatives and the president of the ECB Monday and Tuesday. French President announced Sunday that France would lower its economic forecast to "barely" zero GDP in 2012 and 0.8% in 2013. He also announced plans to raise income taxes on France's wealthiest citizens to 75%. US lawmakers return Monday after a five-week recess, which will return the media's focus to the inability to find compromise and the approaching US fiscal cliff, where automatic tax increases and government spending cuts could join forces and send the US back into recession if Congressional leaders are unable to find a compromise. The Federal Reserve begins a meeting Wednesday, ending Thursday with their forecast announcements at 1:00 and Bernanke's press conference at 1:15.
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.