by Duane Lowry
Thursday, August 16, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:19 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 1 1/4 higher, Wheat= 12 3/4 higher, Soybeans= 4 1/4 lower.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.80-85, Resistance= $8.05, 15-20
*Limited ability to expand upon yesterday's corrective energy.
Nov Soybeans: Support= $16.00, Resistance= $16.35
*Limited ability to build upon yesterday's gains, with a lower close likely.
Sep Wheat: Support= $8.40, Resistance= $8.65-75
*Selling interest will build above overnight values.
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:18 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.04, Gold was down $0.30, Dow Index was up 15 and the US $ was up 8.
*The Dow seems vulnerable to a very precipitous decline at any moment that evolves into a multi-month decline. Don't embrace any upside probe.
Weather is similar to yesterday, with a cool temperature theme. Rains move through the Midwest during the next 2 days.
Wheat has finally generated decent corrective strength, after falling more than 90 cents. New news is limited. Notable selling interest will be found 30 cents above yesterday's close.
Corn traded on both sides overnight, trying to stabilize recent weakness and reject the threat of liquidation pressures building. Tech-based selling interest will build above $8.15. Overall conditions warn of liquidation pressures during the next few weeks, with downside risk easily 50-75 cents.
Soybeans also traded on both sides overnight in choppy fashion. New news is limited. Technical conditions should encourage selling interest to build on probes into positive territory. Overall conditions warn of a major price unraveling during the next few weeks.
In summary, technical selling interest will build near/above the overnight highs. Conditions are not very conducive to multiday rally energy developing. Overall conditions warn of a major liquidation phase unfolding during the next few weeks.
Barge Values: August= +20 U
CZ: Support= 7.45-55, Resistance= 8.15-20
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Trade below yesterday's lows will trigger an expanding liquidation phase.
Barge Values: August= +100 X
SX: Support= 14.90-15.10, Resistance= 16.35
SMZ: Support= 440, Resistance= 492-95
BOZ: Support= 51.50, Resistance= 54.25
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> We are in a key resistance zone capable of turning values back down. Downside risk is at least to the $14.50-15.10 range during the next several weeks. IN SUMMARY, the threat of liquidation pressures unfolding remains. Short-term strength should be searched for selling opportunities.
Barge SRW Values: August= +14 U
WU: Support= 8.35-40, Resistance= 8.65-80
**PROFILE: Chicago September Wheat> After falling more than 90 cents, corrective activity is occurring. Selling interest will build around $8.75.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES:
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.