by Duane Lowry
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:36 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 4 higher, Wheat= 5 higher, Soybeans= 15 higher.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.75, Resistance= $8.10-15
*Overnight strength could easily falter.
Nov Soybeans: Support= $15.95-16.05, Resistance= $16.00-10
*Yesterday's gains will not be fully recovered, making strength today a selling opportunity.
Sep Wheat: Support= $8.60, Resistance= $9.00-10
*Limited rally potential.
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:35 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.40, Gold was up $1.10, Dow Index was up 38 and the US $ was down 17.
*Crude and the Dow will struggle to hold gains this week.
Weather is similar to yesterday. A rain event will pass through the Midwest later this week, producing 65-75% coverage. Temperature theme will be cool during the next week.
Wheat may benefit from inter-market spread liquidation activity, but rally energy will be limited. Overall conditions are poised for price weakness to evolve during the next few weeks.
Corn is quietly higher on further reminders of production woes with yesterday's crop rating data. News is limited. Technical conditions warn of a significant liquidation threat. Fundamental focus is on Friday's USDA data. Traders are universally bullish. We are vulnerable to liquidation pressures expanding before Friday's report.
Soybeans recovered part of yesterday's losses overnight. News is limited. Technical conditions will build selling interest and limit any ability to build momentum to the overnight strength. Overall conditions warn of expanding liquidation pressures and price declines well below yesterday's lows.
In summary, fundamental focus is all on Friday's USDA reports. Technical conditions are littered with warnings to bulls.
Barge Values: August= +56 U
CZ: Support= 7.75, Resistance= 8.25
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Short-term strength should not be trusted. Conditions are poised for a liquidation process to unfold.
Barge Values: August= +105 X
SX: Support= 114.90-15.10, Resistance= 16.00-20
SMZ: Support= 440, Resistance= 490
BOZ: Support= 51.50, Resistance= 54.25
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> Yesterday's losses will not be fully recouped. A liquidation process is ready to unfold and build downside energy. Overnight strength is a selling opportunity. IN SUMMARY, downside risk is significant.
Barge SRW Values: August= +12 U
WU: Support= 8.50, Resistance= 9.05-15
**PROFILE: Chicago September Wheat> Longer-term resistance builds at the overnight levels. Current values are selling opportunities.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES:
*Crop Rating Data released yesterday afternoon:
Corn= 23% Good & Excellent, down from 24% last week, vs 60% last year.
Poor & Very Poor= 50%, vs 48% last week, vs 16% last year.
Corn State Highlights:
Iowa= 16% G&E, down from 20% last week; 49% P&VP, vs 46% last week.
Illinois= 4% G&E, down from 5% last week; 74% P&VP, vs 71% last week.
Indiana= 7% G&E, down from 9% last week; 73% P&VP, vs 69% last week.
Ohio= 14% G&E, down from 16% last week; 52% P&VP, vs 50% last week.
Minnesota= 52% G&E, down from 56% last week, 16% P&VP, vs 14% last week.
Nebraska= 35% G&E, unch from last week, 37% P&VP, unch from last week.
Soybeans= 29% Good & Excellent, unch from last week, vs 61% last year.
Poor & Very Poor= 39%, vs 37% last week, vs 13% last year.
Soybean State Highlights:
Illinois= 10% G&E, up from 9% last week; 57% P&VP, vs 56% last week.
Indiana= 15% G&E, down from 16% last week; 53% P&VP, vs 54% last week.
Iowa= 24% G&E, down from 25% last week; 37% P&VP, vs 34% last week. .
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.