by Duane Lowry
Friday, August 3, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:20 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 4 lower, Wheat= 1 lower, Soybeans= 6 3/4 lower.
*Where are we for the WEEK? Sep Wheat= down 33 cents; Dec Corn= up 2 1/2 cents; Nov Soybeans= up 14 3/4 cents; Dec Soymeal= up $13.40; Dec Soyoil= down 45 points; Crude Oil= down $3.00; US $ Index= up 69; Gold= down $32.00; Dow Index= down 202.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.85, Resistance= $8.25-35
*Reverse overnight weakness.
Nov Soybeans: Support= $15.95-16.05, Resistance= $16.55-75
*Reverse overnight weakness.
Sep Wheat: Support= $8.60, Resistance= $9.00
*Recovery potential during the next few days?
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:18 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $1.08, Gold was up $8.00, Dow Index was up 99 and the US $ was down 57.
*Recover in crude during the next several days. Another upside probe in the Dow Index.
Weather is similar to yesterday. Moisture opportunities exist through-Sun across the Midwest, with lightest totals expected in parts of IA and IL. The next moisture opportunities will be found late next week.
Wheat will find tech-based buying and short-covering activity provide support. Inter-market spread corrective activity could also provide buying energy. New news is limited. We are poised for corrective strength and it is possible that it could be quite significant.
Corn traversed both sides overnight with a weak tone. Short-term technical conditions suggest some buying interest could build, possibly setting the stage for another probe to new highs. New news is limited. Fundamental traders are universally bullish.
Soybeans traded on both sides overnight in choppy activity. New news is limited. Weather forecasts are similar to yesterday. Short-term technical conditions are poised to prompt buying interest. A test/probe of this week's high is a possibility, but overall conditions warn not to trust such strength and to be concerned about a more significant liquidation event than the one seen during the past two weeks.
In summary, short-term technical conditions are poised to encourage buying interest and price firming. A test/probe of this week's highs remains possible. We seem capable of a firm trade today, despite choppy overnight weakness.
Barge Values: July= +67 U
CZ: Support= 7.25, Resistance= 8.25-35
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Short-term conditions poised for recovery strength. Tests/probes of current highs are possible, but likely unsustainable amid conditions that warn of a major liquidation event ahead.
Barge Values: July= +110 Q
SX: Support= 15.50-60, Resistance= 16.55-75
SMZ: Support= 440, Resistance= 500-05
BOZ: Support= 52.00, Resistance= 54.25
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> Short-term conditions poised for rally effort. Any test/probe of this week's highs will lack sustainability. IN SUMMARY, expect another liquidation phase to unfold after another test/probe of this week's highs.
Barge SRW Values: July= +10 U
WU: Support= 8.50, Resistance= 9.15-30
**PROFILE: Chicago September Wheat> Short-term conditions poised to prompt a notable recovery rally. Correction activity in inter-market spreads to provide buying energy also.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES:.
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.