by Duane Lowry
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:24 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 5 higher,    Wheat= 2 1/2 higher,    Soybeans= 16 3/4 higher.
*Where are we for the MONTH? Sep Wheat= up 157 1/4 cents; Dec Corn= up 178 cents; Nov Soybeans= up 215 3/4 cents; Dec Soymeal= up $81.40; Dec Soyoil= up 30 points; Crude Oil= up $4.41; US $ Index= up 111; Gold= up $15.30; Dow Index= up 203.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.75,   Resistance= $8.20
*No trust in current strength. Â Â Â Â
Nov Soybeans: Support= $15.80,    Resistance= $16.75
*No trust in current strength. Â Â Â Â Â
Sep Wheat: Support= $8.85,   Resistance= $9.20
*No trust in current strength. Â
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:23 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.02, Gold was up $2.30, Dow Index was up 25 and the US $ was down 4.
*Awaiting results of this week's FOMC meeting. The market seems too pumped up for some type of new QE3. We seem poised for disappointing reactions to unfold Wednesday into the end of the week. Â
Weather is getting a very bullish spin from traders this morning. They have no faith in moisture opportunities that exist through the next 10 days. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Wheat technical conditions warn strongly against embrace of this upside probe. New news is limited. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Corn continues its upside probe. News is limited. Technical conditions warn that this push to new highs will fail.                                                                               Â
Soybeans are up on escalating trader fears that rains will not arrive to stabilize national soybean potential. This week's strength doesn't make sense to me from a fundamental or technical perspective. Many producers are quietly optimistic about their remaining soybean yield potential. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
In summary, current euphoria has gone past the point of logic as far as I am concerned. Weather spins this morning don't match what seems to me to be reasonable assessment of weather data. I have no interest in embracing or trusting the sustainability of current values. Downside risk exists to values below last week's lows. Current buyers will be trapped. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CORN:
Barge Values: July= +67 U
CZ: Support= 7.25,   Resistance= 8.20
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Technical conditions don't allow me to embrace current strength. They warn of a significant liquidation break. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
SOYBEANS:
Barge Values: July= +110 Q
SX: Support= 15.50-60, Resistance= 16.75
SMZ: Support= 440, Resistance= 505
BOZ: Support= 52.00, Resistance= 54.25
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> IN SUMMARY, expect another liquidation phase to unfold. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
WHEAT:
Barge SRW Values: July= +10 U
WU: Support= 8.50, Resistance= 9.15-20
**PROFILE: Chicago September Wheat> A major long-lasting price peak has been established. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES:
Tomorrow, after the close, FCStone will release their latest production estimates.
*Crop Rating Data released yesterday afternoon:
Corn= 24% Good & Excellent, down from 26% last week, vs 62% last year.
Poor & Very Poor= 48%, vs 45% last week, vs 14% last year.
Corn State Highlights:
Iowa= 20% G&E, down from 23% last week; 46% P&VP, vs 40% last week.
Illinois= 5% G&E, down from 7% last week; 71% P&VP, vs 66% last week.
Indiana= 9% G&E, up from 7% last week; 69% P&VP, vs 71% last week.
Ohio= 16% G&E, up from 15% last week; 50% P&VP, vs 52% last week.
Minnesota= 56% G&E, down from 61% last week, 14% P&VP, vs 11% last week.
Nebraska= 35% G&E, down from 37% last week, 37% P&VP, vs 33% last week.
Soybeans= 29% Good & Excellent, down from 31% last week, vs 60% last year.
Poor & Very Poor= 37%, vs 35% last week, vs 12% last year.
Soybean State Highlights:
Illinois= 9% G&E, down from 13% last week; 56% P&VP, vs 49% last week.
Indiana= 16% G&E, up from 12% last week; 54% P&VP, vs 53% last week.
Iowa= 25% G&E, down from 28% last week; 34% P&VP, vs 30% last week.                    Â
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.