by Duane Lowry
Friday, July 27, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 4:54 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 5 1/2 higher, Wheat= 8 1/4 higher, Soybeans= 22 3/4 higher.
*Where are we for the WEEK? Sep Wheat= down 59 1/4 cents; Dec Corn= down 19 1/2 cents; Nov Soybeans= down 118 3/4 cents; Dec Soymeal= down $40.50; Dec Soyoil= down 278 points; Crude Oil= down $2.44; US $ Index= down 72; Gold= up $32.3; Dow Index= up 52.
*Informa is expected to release their latest US production estimates at 10:30 this morning.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $7.50, Resistance= $7.80-85
*Overall, we are defining a price ceiling. We may have more time to spend in liquidation mode, suggesting this week's lows may be violated during the next several days.
Nov Soybeans: Support= $15.50-60, Resistance= $15.80-16.00
*Major resistance at $16.10-40, but I think we struggle to build upon the overnight gains. We remain poised for additional liquidation pressures that push below this week's lows during the next couple of weeks.
Sep Wheat: Support= $8.75, Resistance= $9.00-20
*Short-term resistance should build near the overnight high. We seem vulnerable for more downside energy during the next several days. Longer-term selling interest will build on probes above $9.00, basis Sep, limiting overall rally potential and/or sustainability.
Outside Market Influences:
At 4:53 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.32, Gold was up $6.90, Dow Index was up 13 and the US $ was up 6.
*Major price peaks have likely been established in stocks and crude. Strength today offers longer-term selling opportunities.
Weather is similar to yesterday, with this week's rains and milder temperature forecasts making it difficult to resurrect trader enthusiasm/focus on weather concerns.
Wheat is building selling interest near/just above current values. News is limited. Current levels represent longer-term selling opportunities.
Corn has underperformed recent expectations/hopes. Today's Informa numbers may play the role of "last chance" for many longs teetering on whether to liquidate positions. Short-term technical conditions warn of additional liquidation pressures ahead. Longer-term technical conditions warn that any probe into new highs will lack sustainability. If values are trading lower after Informa's data, we could see some accelerated liquidation energy develop before the weekend.
Soybeans experienced wide-swinging recovery action overnight. Technical selling interest is building above the market and may limit ability to extend above the overnight levels. Today's fundamental focus will be on Informa. Overall conditions warn of additional liquidation pressures ahead.
In summary, overnight gains may be difficult to build upon as technical selling energy is building above the market. Trade focus will be on Informa's numbers. Any disappointing price action following their release could easily trigger expanding liquidation pressures.
Barge Values: July= +67 U
CZ: Support= 6.90-7.15, Resistance= 8.00-15
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Short-term conditions suggest limited probes into positive territory today. More correction/liquidation activity may unfold during the next several days that can violate this week's lows.
Barge Values: July= +110 Q
SX: Support= 15.50-60, Resistance= 16.15-35
SMZ: Support= 420-40, Resistance= 485-90
BOZ: Support= 52.00, Resistance= 54.25
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> Corrective upside targets and major resistance levels achieved late yesterday. We may be poised for more time in a liquidation period, with further testing/probing below this week's lows during the next several days. IN SUMMARY, expect more wide-swinging activity.
Barge SRW Values: July= +10 U
WU: Support= 7.75-8.25, Resistance= 9.00-15
**PROFILE: Chicago September Wheat> A major long-lasting price peak has been established. Probes above $9.00 will begin to unveil longer-term selling interest.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES:
This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.