by Duane Lowry
Friday, July 6, 2012
SUNRISE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW:
*At 6:36 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 14 lower, Wheat= 21 lower, Soybeans= 12 lower.
Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $6.70, Resistance= $7.05
*Don't trust sustainability of this week's strength. We are defining upper limits of price potential during the next several months.
Nov Soybeans: Support= $14.85 area, Resistance= $15.25-35
*Due for a very notable correction phase.
Sep Wheat: Support= $7.90, Resistance= $8.30-40
*Current values represent longer-term selling opportunities.
Outside Market Influences:
At 6:34 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was down $1.66, Gold was down $14.20, Dow Index was down 12 and the US $ was up 8.
Weather is similar to yesterday. Cooler temps begin to arrive and last through next week. Precip opportunities exist this weekend, with best chances in the far north for the Midwest. Other areas will receive light amounts. The Delta should receive good rains during the next 5 days.
Wheat has the same fundamental foundation it has had for some time, but with prices now nearly $2 higher than mid-June, traders are beginning to want to be bullish wheat. Downside risk is substantial from current levels.
Corn traders are racing each other to a lower production projection. Today's weather forecasts is similar to yesterday. Technical conditions offer warnings to bulls, but nobody cares. I have no interest in a bullish stance at this time. Producers need to focus on price protection strategies for 2012 and 2013 production.
Soybeans have achieved longer-term upside price targets. Technical conditions offer bulls warnings.
In summary, weather is similar to yesterday but price tone is the opposite. Technical conditions warn of downside vulnerability. I have no interest in a bullish stance at this time and producers should be capturing pricing opportunities for both 2012 and 2013 production windows. Downside risk from current levels is much greater than enflamed rhetoric suggests.
Barge Values: June= +69 N
CZ: Support= 6.10-25, Resistance= 7.00-7.15
**PROFILE: Dec Corn> Upside price targets have been reached. Short-chasing has been thorough. I have no interest in a bullish stance at this time. Producers need to again establish price protection, both 2012 and 2013.
Barge Values: June= +65 N
SX: Support= 14.25, Resistance= 15.30
SMZ: Support= 400-05, Resistance= 445-50
BOZ: Support= 51.50, Resistance= 55.00
**PROFILE: Nov Soybeans> The rally is overdone. IN SUMMARY, we are high enough.
Barge SRW Values: June= +28 N
WU: Support= 7.45, Resistance= 8.30-40
**PROFILE: Chicago September Wheat> Overbot conditions exist. Significant downside can evolve during the next several months. Current levels represent longer-term selling opportunities.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES:
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